Predict the major product for the following reaction and explain


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  • Mental Models: The Best Way to Make Intelligent Decisions (~100 Models Explained)
  • Share Wildfires and Climate Change Climate change has been a key factor in increasing the risk and extent of wildfires in the Western United States. Wildfire risk depends on a number of factors, including temperature, soil moisture, and the presence of trees, shrubs, and other potential fuel.

    All these factors have strong direct or indirect ties to climate variability and climate change. Climate change enhances the drying of organic matter in forests the material that burns and spreads wildfire , and has doubled the number of large fires between and in the western United States. Research shows that changes in climate create warmer, drier conditions. Increased drought, and a longer fire season are boosting these increases in wildfire risk.

    For much of the U. West, projections show that an average annual 1 degree C temperature increase would increase the median burned area per year as much as percent in some types of forests. In the Southeastern United States modeling suggests increased fire risk and a longer fire season, with at least a 30 percent increase from in the area burned by lightning-ignited wildfire by Once a fire starts—more than 80 percent of U. Warmer, drier conditions also contribute to the spread of the mountain pine beetle and other insects that can weaken or kill trees, building up the fuels in a forest.

    Land use and forest management also affect wildfire risk. Changes in climate add to these factors and are expected to continue to increase the area affected by wildfires in the United States.

    Trends in the annual number of large fires in the western United States Notes This graphic from the Fourth National Climate Assessmen t shows the growth in large wildfires throughout the West. The black lines are fitted trend lines. The wildfire season was well above average, with deadly fires in California and throughout the West, including Montana, Oregon, and Washington state. The wildfire season went on to also break records as the deadliest and most destructive season on record in California.

    In , five of the six largest fires on record burned in California and Oregon saw historic levels of wildfire spread and damage. Wildfires across the West led to weeks-long periods of unhealthy air quality levels for millions of people. See a map of billion-dollar extreme weather disasters here.

    Wildfire can affect: Federal and State Budgets: U. Public Health: The growing number of people in wild lands is increasing the risk to life, property and public health. Smoke reduces air quality and can cause eye and respiratory illness, especially among children and the elderly.

    Wildfires that burn in residential areas can melt plastic water pipes and cause contamination of water systems with a known carcinogen. Natural Environment: Wildfires are a natural part of many ecosystems. Although wildfires produce a number of greenhouse gases and aerosols including carbon dioxide, methane, and black carbon, the plants that re-colonize burned areas remove carbon from the atmosphere, generally leading to a net neutral effect on climate. How to Build Resilience Communities, builders, homeowners, and forest managers can reduce the likelihood and impacts of wildfires by: Discouraging developments especially residential near fire-prone forests through smart zoning rules.

    Increasing the space between structures and nearby trees and brush, and clearing space between neighboring houses. Increasing resources allocated to firefighting and fire prevention. Removing fuels, such as dead trees, from forests that are at risk. Developing recovery plans before a fire hits, and implementing plans quickly after a fire to reduce erosion, limit flooding, and minimize habitat damage.

    For more details on wildfire resilience, read our report, Resilience Strategies for Wildfire.

    Company scientists continue to carefully examine the findings of all available and emerging studies of ivermectin for the treatment of COVID for evidence of efficacy and safety.

    It is important to note that, to-date, our analysis has identified: No scientific basis for a potential therapeutic effect against COVID from pre-clinical studies; No meaningful evidence for clinical activity or clinical efficacy in patients with COVID disease, and; A concerning lack of safety data in the majority of studies. We do not believe that the data available support the safety and efficacy of ivermectin beyond the doses and populations indicated in the regulatory agency-approved prescribing information.

    After treatment with microfilaricidal drugs, patients with hyperreactive onchodermatitis sowda may be more likely than others to experience severe adverse reactions, especially edema and aggravation of onchodermatitis. Rarely, patients with onchocerciasis who are also heavily infected with Loa loa may develop a serious or even fatal encephalopathy either spontaneously or following treatment with an effective microfilaricide. In individuals who warrant treatment with ivermectin for any reason and have had significant exposure to Loa loa-endemic areas of West or Central Africa, pretreatment assessment for loiasis and careful post-treatment follow-up should be implemented.

    Strongyloidiasis: The patient should be reminded of the need for repeated stool examinations to document clearance of infection with Strongyloides stercoralis. Changes observed were primarily deterioration from baseline 3 days post-treatment.

    Most changes either returned to baseline condition or improved over baseline severity at the month 3 and 6 visits. The percentages of patients with worsening of the following conditions at day 3, month 3 and 6, respectively, were: limbitis: 5. The corresponding percentages for patients treated with placebo were: limbitis: 6.

    These have rarely been severe or associated with loss of vision and have generally resolved without corticosteroid treatment. Drug Interactions Post-marketing reports of increased INR International Normalized Ratio have been rarely reported when ivermectin was co-administered with warfarin.

    Use in Specific Populations Ivermectin should not be used during pregnancy since safety in pregnancy has not been established. Ivermectin is excreted in human milk in low concentrations. Treatment of mothers who intend to breast-feed should only be undertaken when the risk of delayed treatment to the mother outweighs the possible risk to the newborn.

    Safety and effectiveness in pediatric patients weighing less than 15 kg have not been established. In immunocompromised including HIV-infected patients being treated for intestinal strongyloidiasis, repeated courses of therapy may be required. Adequate and well-controlled clinical studies have not been conducted in such patients to determine the optimal dosing regimen.

    We demonstrate our commitment to patients and population health by increasing access to health care through far-reaching policies, programs and partnerships. Today, Merck continues to be at the forefront of research to prevent and treat diseases that threaten people and animals — including cancer, infectious diseases such as HIV and Ebola, and emerging animal diseases — as we aspire to be the premier research-intensive biopharmaceutical company in the world. For more information, visit www.

    Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of If underlying assumptions prove inaccurate or risks or uncertainties materialize, actual results may differ materially from those set forth in the forward-looking statements.

    The company undertakes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

    Wildfires across the West led to weeks-long periods of unhealthy air quality levels for millions of people. See a map of billion-dollar extreme weather disasters here. Wildfire can affect: Federal and State Budgets: U. Public Health: The growing number of people in wild lands is increasing the risk to life, property and public health. Smoke reduces air quality and can cause eye and respiratory illness, especially among children and the elderly.

    Wildfires that burn in residential areas can melt plastic water pipes and cause contamination of water systems with a known carcinogen. Natural Environment: Wildfires are a natural part of many ecosystems. Although wildfires produce a number of greenhouse gases and aerosols including carbon dioxide, methane, and black carbon, the plants that re-colonize burned areas remove carbon from the atmosphere, generally leading to a net neutral effect on climate.

    How to Build Resilience Communities, builders, homeowners, and forest managers can reduce the likelihood and impacts of wildfires by: Discouraging developments especially residential near fire-prone forests through smart zoning rules. Increasing the space between structures and nearby trees and brush, and clearing space between neighboring houses.

    And of course, human beings act with intense reciprocity demonstrated as well. Thermodynamics The laws of thermodynamics describe energy in a closed system. The laws cannot be escaped and underlie the physical world. They describe a world in which useful energy is constantly being lost, and energy cannot be created or destroyed.

    Applying their lessons to the social world can be a profitable enterprise. Inertia An object in motion with a certain vector engine stand dimensions to continue moving in that direction unless acted upon. This is a fundamental physical principle of motion; however, individuals, systems, and organizations display the same effect. It allows them to minimize the use of energy, but can cause them to be destroyed or eroded.

    Friction and Viscosity Both friction and viscosity describe the difficulty of movement. Friction is a force that opposes the movement of objects that are in contact with each other, and viscosity measures how hard it is for one fluid to slide over another.

    Higher viscosity leads to higher resistance. These concepts teach us a lot about how our environment can impede our movement. Velocity Velocity is not equivalent to speed; the two are sometimes confused. Velocity is speed plus vector: how fast something gets somewhere.

    An object that moves two steps forward and then two steps back has moved at a certain speed but shows no velocity. The addition of the vector, that critical distinction, is what we should consider in practical life. Leverage Most of the engineering marvels of the world were accomplished with applied leverage. Understanding where we can apply this model to the human world can be a source of great success.

    Two combustible elements alone are not enough. The reaction may slow or stop without the addition of catalysts. Social systems, of course, take on many similar traits, and we can view catalysts in a similar light.

    Alloying When we combine various elements, we create new substances. The Mental Models of Biology 1. But of course, conditions change. Evolution Part Two: Adaptation and The Red Queen Effect Species tend to adapt to their surroundings in order to survive, given the combination of their genetics and their environment — an always-unavoidable combination. The evolution-by-natural-selection model leads to something of an arms race among species competing for limited resources.

    When one species evolves an advantageous adaptation, a competing species must respond in kind or fail as a species. Standing still can mean falling behind. Ecosystems An ecosystem describes any group of organisms coexisting with the natural world.

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    Most ecosystems show diverse forms of life taking on different approaches to survival, with such pressures leading to varying behavior. Social systems can be seen in the same light as the physical ecosystems and many of the same conclusions can be made. Niches Most organisms find a niche: a method of competing and behaving for survival. Usually, a species will select a niche for which it is best adapted. The danger arises when multiple species begin competing for the same niche, which can cause an extinction — there can be only so many species doing the same thing before limited resources give out.

    Replication A fundamental building block of diverse biological life is high-fidelity replication. The fundamental unit of replication seems to be the DNA molecule, which provides a blueprint for the offspring to be built from physical building blocks. There are a variety of replication methods, but most can be lumped into sexual and asexual.

    Cooperation Competition tends to describe most biological systems, but cooperation at various levels is just as important a dynamic. In fact, the cooperation of a bacterium and a simple cell probably created the first complex cell and all of the life we see around us.

    Without cooperation, no group survives, and the cooperation of groups gives rise to even more complex versions of organization. Cooperation and competition tend to coexist at multiple levels. Thus the dilemma. This model shows up in economic life, in war, and in many other areas of practical human life. Hierarchical Organization Most complex biological organisms have an innate feel for how they should organize.

    While not all of them end up in hierarchical structures, many do, especially in the animal kingdom. Human beings like to think they are outside of this, but they feel the hierarchical instinct as strongly as any other organism. This includes the Stanford Prison Experiment and Milgram Experiments, which demonstrated what humans learned practically many years before: the human bias towards being influenced by authority.

    In a dominance hierarchy such as ours, we tend to look to the leader for guidance on behavior, especially in situations of stress or uncertainty.

    Thus, authority figures have a responsibility to act well, whether they like it or not. Incentives All creatures respond to incentives to keep themselves alive. This is the basic insight of biology. Constant incentives will tend to cause a biological entity to have constant behavior, to an extent.

    Humans are included and are particularly great examples of the incentive-driven nature of biology; however, humans are complicated in that their incentives can be hidden or intangible.

    The rule of life is to repeat what works and has been rewarded. Thus, we see in most instances that behavior is governed by a tendency to minimize energy usage when at all possible. The Mental Models of Systems Thinking 1. Feedback Loops All complex systems are subject to positive and negative feedback loops whereby A causes B, which in turn influences A and Cand so on — with higher-order effects frequently resulting from continual movement of the loop.

    In a homeostatic system, a change in A is often brought back into line by an opposite change in B to maintain the balance of the system, as with the temperature of the human body or the behavior of an organizational culture. Equilibrium Homeostasis is the process through which systems self-regulate to maintain an equilibrium state that enables them to function in a changing environment.

    Most of the time, they over or undershoot it by a little and must keep adjusting. Like a pilot flying a plane, the system is off course more often than on course. Everything within a homeostatic system contributes to keeping it within a range of equilibrium, so it is important to understand the limits of the range. Bottlenecks A bottleneck describes the place at which a flow of a tangible or intangible is stopped, thus constraining it back from continuous movement.

    As with a clogged artery or a blocked drain, a bottleneck in production of any good or service can be small but have a disproportionate impact if it is in the critical path. However, bottlenecks can also be a source of inspiration as they force us reconsider if there are alternate pathways to success.

    Scale One of the most important principles of systems is that they are sensitive to scale. Properties or behaviors tend to change when you scale them up or down. In studying complex systems, we must always be roughly quantifying — in orders of magnitude, at least — the scale at which we are observing, analyzing, or predicting the system. Margin of Safety Similarly, engineers have also developed the habit of adding a margin for error into all calculations.

    In an unknown world, driving a 9,pound bus over a bridge built to hold precisely 9, pounds is rarely seen as intelligent. Thus, on the whole, few modern bridges ever fail. In practical life outside of physical engineering, we can often profitably give ourselves margins as robust as the bridge system. Churn Insurance companies and subscription services are well aware of the concept of churn — every year, a certain number of customers are lost and must be replaced.

    Algorithms are best known for their use in modern computing, but are a feature of biological life as well. For example, human DNA contains an algorithm for building a human being. Critical mass A system becomes critical when it is about to jump discretely from one phase to another.

    The marginal utility of the last unit before the phase change is wildly higher than any unit before it. A frequently cited example is water turning from a liquid to a vapor when heated to a specific temperature. Emergence Higher-level behavior tends to emerge from the interaction of lower-order components.

    The result is frequently not linear — not a matter of simple addition — but rather non-linear, or exponential. An important resulting property of emergent behavior is that it cannot be predicted from simply studying the component parts. Irreducibility We find that in most systems there are irreducible quantitative properties, such as complexity, minimums, time, and length. Below the irreducible level, the desired result simply does not occur.

    One cannot get several women pregnant to reduce the amount of time needed to have one child, and one cannot reduce a successfully built automobile to a single part.

    These results are, to a defined point, irreducible. Law of Diminishing Returns Related to scale, most important real-world results are subject to an eventual decrease of incremental value. A good example would be a poor family: Give them enough money to thrive, and they are no longer poor. But after a certain point, additional money will not improve their lot; there is a clear diminishing return of additional dollars at some roughly quantifiable point.

    Often, the law of diminishing returns veers into negative territory — i. The Mental Models of Numeracy 1. Normal distributions can be contrasted with power law, or exponential, distributions.

    Mental Models: The Best Way to Make Intelligent Decisions (~100 Models Explained)

    Compounding is the process by which we add interest to a fixed sum, which then earns interest on the previous sum and the newly added interest, and then earns interest on that amount, and so on ad infinitum. It is an exponential effect, rather than a linear, or additive, effect. Money is not the only thing that compounds; ideas and relationships do as well.

    In tangible realms, compounding is always subject to physical limits and diminishing returns; intangibles can compound more freely. Compounding also leads to the time value of money, which underlies all of modern finance.

    Company scientists continue to carefully examine the findings of all available and emerging studies of ivermectin for the treatment of COVID for evidence of efficacy and safety. It is important to note that, to-date, our analysis has identified: No scientific basis for a potential therapeutic effect against COVID from pre-clinical studies; No meaningful evidence for clinical activity or clinical efficacy in patients with COVID disease, and; A concerning lack of safety data in the majority of studies.

    We do not believe that the data available support the safety and efficacy of ivermectin beyond the doses and populations indicated in the regulatory agency-approved prescribing information. After treatment with microfilaricidal drugs, patients with hyperreactive onchodermatitis sowda may be more likely than others to experience severe adverse reactions, especially edema and aggravation of onchodermatitis.

    Rarely, patients with onchocerciasis who are also heavily infected with Loa loa may develop a serious or even fatal encephalopathy either spontaneously or following treatment with an effective microfilaricide. In individuals who warrant treatment with ivermectin for any reason and have had significant exposure to Loa loa-endemic areas of West or Central Africa, pretreatment assessment for loiasis and careful post-treatment follow-up should be implemented. Strongyloidiasis: The patient should be reminded of the need for repeated stool examinations to document clearance of infection with Strongyloides stercoralis.

    Changes observed were primarily deterioration from baseline 3 days post-treatment.


    Predict the major product for the following reaction and explain